Friday, June 10, 2016

Our future is NOT waiting for YOU, Me or anyone else!

YOU have got to read this, YOU have got to be thinking..
."what is she sharing now?" 
I think I read far too much, I think too much, ok, and maybe I share too much...but really,
READ every word and pay attention....OUR FUTURE IS MOVING FAST......



In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide.  Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.  What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most people don't see it coming.  Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again?  Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975.  The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law.

So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years.  It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.

Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.  Welcome to the Exponential Age.  Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and is now the biggest taxi company in the world.  Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world.  This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

10 predictions about how IBM’s Watson will impact the legal profession

In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs.  Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.  So if you study law, stop immediately.  There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.

(what is Watson? read more here)

IBM Watson is a technology platform that uses natural language processing and machine learning to reveal insights from large amounts of unstructured data

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses.  Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans.

Love to cook, wait till you see what WATSON can do here.. Cookbooks none of us will ever need them... try it, add one ingredient, and it does complimentary foods, gives you loads of recipes...
I am telling you our FUTURE is changing with or without US.  OH MY.....

In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public.  Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted.

You don't want to own a car anymore.  You will call a car with your phone: it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination.  You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving.  Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car.  It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that.  We can transform former parking space into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide.  We now have one accident every 60,000 mi.  With autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million mi.&n bsp; That will save a million lives each year.  Most car companies might become bankrupt.  Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.  I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla.

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100 times cheaper.  Their car insurance business model will disappear.

Real estate will change.  Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

Electric cars will not become mainstream until 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electricity.

Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean. Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact.  Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter.  We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water.  Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

Health: The Tri-corder X price will be announced this year.  There will be companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tri-corder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, you blood sample and you breathe into it.  It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any disease.  It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.

3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years.  In the same time, it became 1 00 times faster.  All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes.  Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports.  The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amout of spare parts they used to have in the past.  At the end of this year, new smartphones will have 3D scanning possibilities.  You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.  In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-story office building.  By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.

Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?  If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea.

And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed into failure in the 21st century.

Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years.  There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.

Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future.  Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields.  Aeroponics will need much less water.  The first petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018.  Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows.  Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. 

There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly.  It contains more protein than meat.  It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).

There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you are.

Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying.  Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.

Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.

Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years.  The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, th ere will be more that one year increase per year.  So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.

Education: The cheapest smartphones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia.  Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smartphone.  That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.



Lot's to think about...I  know I think too much and I think it is much more fun to have others think with me too....wink.. So what do you think? 


Life use to be less complicated...or was it?

I know I have got to get to bed...
Have not figured out a way to be UP for 48 hours....

David is already in bed, he has to be at the starting line
for 7:am ..

Night...
Mdm Samm 










32 comments:

  1. My goodness that is a really lot to think about. I am thinking I am happy to be old at this stage of life since I am not good with technology or change. I shall adapt or become extinct. Maybe it is time for me to get a Smart Phone. Good Night's Sleep Deear...

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    1. I know I feel the same Sherry, pleased to be in the winter of our lives..I embrace technology but I person who enjoys turning back the clock, and canning, and sewing and making my own clothes...somethings will not change, in fact I think we will be more the pioneers to teach those who do not know how to do these things..

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    1. and it is sweet lady...if you do not adapt a little of it..

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  3. Oh Samm, such an interesting post! It was pleasure to read it and to think of all these things the progress may bring. In my opinion, the life never becomes less complicated with the progress... It is supposed to be easier, but in fact people just have to do much more things in one period of time, the business day of a person becomes more and more loaded. I think, life was much slower and less nervous let's say 100 years ago... than now. But it is always interesting to see what's coming next! I never knew that we can produce shoes with 3-D printers.

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    1. Hi Masha...you are a lady who will see many of these changes and rise above it...but with the good comes the bad. People will have to do many things ...as it is, even now many are so overloaded they are moving to the country and trying to live off the land...many want to slow down the progress but it seems the FUTURE will be dragging us along with it.. Here is what I have embraced...we get to share with people all over the world within seconds ....100 years ago...that would not have been possible to meet gifted lovely ladies like yourself in Russia! ...now that is a progress that was worth it wink..

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  4. This reminds me of The pianist by Kurt Vonegut! And he wrote it so many years ago!Machines will run everything. People's jobs will become redundant!AriadnefromGreece!

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    1. Yes Ariadne, I know of his theory that is now becoming reality...I notice it so much in our youth...they do not write, they do not cook, sew, garden, and take away their phone and they cannot think for themselves...I don't worry about those who grew up without technology, we will cope...it is the rest who will have to cope with a future that will have no end.... not as we know it... they will need us...they just don't know it yet wink

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  5. Definitely lots to think about, and on sooo many levels... It is almost scary because it is still unknown, and it is unpredictable how it will be developing. Digital pictures, digital money, electric cars are convenient, and we got used to them (still not ready for the insects based diet though). I don't know, dear Samm, that's a lot to absorb, though I need to somewhat plan and organize my life/work/expenses now. Just how to find the best solution? And it is not a straightforward world as it was (but I also doubt it was simple back then too).
    I will think about it tomorrow (c)))))

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    1. Hi Lana...oh my do I hear you....I belong to a THINK TANK, these were some chats the other day. And yes like you and me and everyone else who questions "what will happen to us all" "where will we fit in"...because we don't talk about it on the news does not mean it is not happening...we have experienced it already. LOOK I can write to you in seconds you can read it...back 25 years ago, we could not have even thought that would be possible...yes lots to think about....( tomorrow which never comes) lol

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  6. Go David Go :) Yes, I believe the world is more complicated, but it is good to connect with friends like you...couldn't do that in days past!

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  7. ahhh you are the sweetest Kris...and yes we could it was let me think a minute....we wrote letters..yes that is it lol...and yes with change there are some setbacks...but we connect and that is a PLUS xx waiting for David now...I am at a cheering station...GOOOOOOOO David...

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  8. Hummm...and I remember the days when I thought my folks were old and just didn't get it! Now I'm one of em! LOL!!!

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    1. Hi Joan....and yes we find ourselves thinking and saying the same....lol

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  9. We already have too many lawyers. This is very interesting. Did you write it or where did it come from?
    Rosemary

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    1. HI Rosemary, it was a collaborative effort....it comes from IBM Watson think tanks...
      and totally with you there...too many lawyers who run in office .lol

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  10. Hi Samm, lots to think about. I have a love/hate relationship with technology and it's because of my age I'm sure.But the bottom line for me is that I embrace it and love new things. We can keep the old and still enjoy some of the new, don't you think?
    Just think if it were 1916. Sue would never know the Riot Boys :) xxx

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    1. I know Sue, many are afraid of what is happening..but remember at one time we just purchased tv...now we cannot have them without cable. Long distance was in the stratosphere, at least now it is manageable, we can connect with a world at a price mind you, but we can stay home and travel and never leave our pc...lol. I am not sure I want to live past 100, I am not even sure I want to live past 70 lol. Where will we all be living? It is hard enough now to locate senior and retirement homes lol.

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  11. Well..... I read this whole thing and guess what? My head did not explode
    Happy week-end Missie Samm.

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    1. Ahhh Rosemary, you do manage to find the silver lining lol. and besides that would be messy....lol

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  12. How interesting Samm...and a bit unnerving too. Best wishes to David! blessings, marlene

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    1. It is happening Marlene....not like they are predictions, it is already in the present. WATSON is everywhere... David is doing well...it was tough yesterday, I had a family emergency, so I got home in time to cheer for him...I spent most of my time in the car...and it was almost 100 degrees...today it is better...the wind is on their backs so they are making great time..

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  13. Very interesting. Now how can I share this post with others?

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    1. http://www.sewwequilt.com/2016/06/our-future-is-not-waiting-for-you-me-or.html
      copy the link above Jacqueline....it is interesting isn't it...all true..it is HERE now..

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  14. So wow Mdm Samm......love it..

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    1. I feel it with you Wow Wow Wow, pretty lady

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  15. Watson is a little scary to say the least. Thinking back, it is amazing how much our lives have changed in the last few years. Technology is changing how everyone interacts with the world whether we like it or not. Machines can do almost anything, except be human... we still have the market cornered there. Love your post, it sure makes you think.

    Best wishes to David. He is amazing.

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    1. Yes Watson has snuck in without a sound but he is making so many changes already...that will be explosive in the near future...x

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  16. This was a very interesting read. It started a lengthy discussion with me and my boys. Let it be said "There ain't no way I'm eating petri dish meat or bug protein"! I don't like the idea of not owning a car. I hope that we can still drive our vintage cars. I'll be that crazy eccentric old lady doing everything the old fashion way and cruising around in a 1960's pick up truck. lol A rebel too end! lol

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    1. HI Theresa....I am with your boys lol...I too will be rebelling...just not ready for many of these things..

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  17. my goodness ... what careers will MY daughters steer towards given this info.... love all the information you give us to think upon! miss you much 😊

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    1. HI Wendy....yes a lot to think about but it the present is here now....and miss you too.

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You think they are just words...they are sew much more than that...your wee messages tell me, you are kind, smart and important...